This IPPR briefing paper dissects the 2024 National Assembly results and shows Swapo’s support sliding to a little above the 50% mark after peaking at 80% in 2014. Using constituency-level data, it traces three big shifts: urban centres turning into battlegrounds, the South consolidating as opposition territory, and cracks emerging in the party’s northern heartlands. Namibia is entering a more competitive era, but opposition fragmentation limits the possibilities for a significant power shift.