Publication

Date.

30 Jun 2020

Author.

Klaus Schade

Series.

BCM

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IJG Business Climate Monitor April 2020

BCM only shows limited COVID-19 impact

The IJG Business Climate Monitor (BCM) continued to rise in April 2020 although at a slower pace. The Leading Indicator also rose to 57.81 from 56.77. The continued rises in the BCM and Leading Indicator came despite the global, regional and national lockdowns caused by COVID-19. The upward trend indicates that Namibia’s economy would have been making progress if COVID-19 had not abruptly halted many business activities. Unfortunately, the  methodology applied and the indicators selected for calibrating the BCM and Leading Indicator only picked up the impact of COVID-19 to a limited extent. So while indicators like the number of tourist arrivals, businesses registered and vehicles sold showed huge drop-offs other factors, like the gold price, other commodity price increases, the continuance of agriculture, the low inflation rate, and reduction in the price of oil, pushed the BCM and Leading Indicator in a positive direction. The BCM and Leader Indicator also use 12-month moving averages to smoothen peaks and troughs which would have made the pandemic’s impact less obvious and dramatic.